Monthly Portfolio Update – April 2026

On the gathering tide of darkness ride

The argosies of the sky,

And spangle the night with their sails of light

As the streaming star goes by.

J.R.R Tolkien The Voyage of Earendel the Evening Star

This is my one hundred and thirteenth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $3,250,000. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $112,000 (in 2026 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.45 per cent.

A secondary focus will be maintaining the minimum equity target of $2,600,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$970,555
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$48,659
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$83,390
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$91,304
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$657,749
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$1,016,641
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$337,076
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$285,330
Bitcoin$1,180,875
Plenti Capital Notes$84,000
Financial portfolio value (excluding Bitcoin)$3,574,074
(+$103,919)
Total portfolio value$4,755,579
(+$188,076)

Asset allocation

Australian shares29.0%
Global shares30.6%
Emerging market shares1.1%
International small companies1.3%
Total international shares33.1%
Total shares62.0% (-18.0%)
Australian bonds2.7%
International bonds3.6%
Total bonds6.3% (+1.3%)
Gold6.0%
Bitcoin24.8%
Gold and alternatives30.8% (+15.8%)

Presented visually, the pie chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the full portfolio.

Comments

This past month the portfolio rebounded from the previous losses, expanding by $188,000 or around 4.1 per cent.

As a result a five month downward trend in the overall portfolio value was broken. From the perspective of the financial portfolio, movements through April partly reversed about half of the losses of the prior month.

This leaves the financial portfolio within around two per cent of its highest ever value, despite the ongoing elevated levels of geopolitical instability.

In sharp contrast, the full portfolio has only just returned to levels first reached in late 2024, due to prolonged falls in the price of Bitcoin.

The chart below sets out the performance of both the full and ‘financial assets only’ portfolios since the commencement of the journey.

Driving the strong performance this month has been a rebounding in global equity markets, of around 5.2 per cent, as well as growth in the price of Bitcoin (7.7 per cent), after significant falls over the past six months.

Australian equities continued to deliver small positive returns, with capital appreciation of around 1.1 per cent and payments of quarterly income of around 1.0 per cent.

The general economic picture over the medium-term is clouded by uncertainty over the full impacts of closure of the Straits of Hormuz, and the flow on ramifications to global supply chains, liquid fuels, and prices. It is possible that even as equity markets provide broadly positive signals, the effects of the crisis will persist and cascade through everyday markets and consumer experiences for months or years ahead.

Gold holdings drifted lower by around 4.5 per cent per cent, continuing a retreat since the end of January.

The month as previously small additional new investments were made in global equities (through the Vanguard exchange traded fund VGS), in accordance with the decision to regularly reinvest excess distributions and cash holdings.

Weather margin: the role and effects of currency exposure on the portfolio

One of the less visible elements of portfolio performance over time, which has an increasing absolute dollar impact on portfolio performance as the portfolio grows, is the effect of currency exposures.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – April 2026”

Monthly Portfolio Update – March 2026

Most men thought it would come, but no man prepared for it; no man considered it would come like a Thief in the night. . . . They have dreamed out their dream, and awakening have found nothing in their hands.

Daniel Dafoe

This is my one hundred and twelfth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $3,250,000. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $112,000 (in 2026 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.45 per cent.

A secondary focus will be maintaining the minimum equity target of $2,600,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$931,054
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$47,355
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$82,469
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$93,420
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$648,615
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$954,738
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$332,674
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$296,460
Bitcoin$1,096,718
Plenti Capital Notes$84,000
Financial portfolio value (excluding Bitcoin)$3,470,785
(-$208,956)
Total portfolio value$4,567,503
(-$136,493)

Asset allocation

Australian shares29.5%
Global shares30.2%
Emerging market shares1.1%
International small companies1.3%
Total international shares32.6%
Total shares62.1% (-17.9%)
Australian bonds2.8%
International bonds3.7%
Total bonds6.5% (+1.5%)
Gold6.5%
Bitcoin24.0%
Gold and alternatives30.5% (+15.5%)

Presented visually, the pie chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the full portfolio.

Comments

This month the portfolio continued its sustained period of losses, the longest period of losses in the headline portfolio record to date.

The overall portfolio recorded a loss of $136,000, or 2.9 per cent.

The traditional financial asset portfolio experienced higher losses, of around $209,000, or 5.7 per cent. This fall represents the second largest monthly loss in financial assets, in percentage term after March 2020. In nominal dollar terms, it is the largest monthly loss the financial portfolio has ever incurred.

The combination of these two results means that at a portfolio level, the month was unremarkable, due to rises in the value of Bitcoin significantly offsetting broad losses in traditional financial assets. Yet when only the financial portfolio is considered, the losses were unusually high relative to any events since 2020.

The chart below provides the performance of both the full and ‘financial assets only’ portfolios since the commencement of the journey.

The dominant theme of markets has been volatility and losses, as macro-economic conditions and expectations deteriorate around geopolitical conflict and disruption in the Persian gulf.

While the value of bitcoin holdings have increased around 7 per cent across the month, the value of gold holdings have declined sharply, by 9 per cent. This fall in gold perhaps reflects some forced selling from previously significant state holders, and expectations of higher interest rates to respond to expected inflationary forces associated with oil and supply chain disruptions.

Australian equities have fallen around 7.2 per cent across the month, while global equities have also fallen, by 4.3 per cent.

This picture of generally correlated sharp asset movements is a common marker of financial market stress. As this occurred, however, the correlation between bitcoin holding and the financial portfolio have turned negative, and bitcoin has at least temporarily become a ‘negative beta’ asset, moving in the opposite direction to other financial assets.

As March closes, so does the the first quarter of the financial year. This means that quarterly distributions are being finalised across the ETF and retail fund holdings. Based on past average payouts and some estimated ETF distributions, it is projected that the portfolio will generate around $20,000 in total distributions in this quarter.

The month as previously small additional new investments were made in global equities (through the Vanguard exchange traded fund VGS), in accordance with the decision to regularly reinvest excess distributions and cash holdings.

Fixing the plot: tracking portfolio income, distributions and expenses (2017-2026)

For the past six years portfolio updates have generally included a comparison of portfolio distribution and expenses, inspired by a similar chart in the classic financial independence guide, Your Money or Your Life published in 1992.

More recently, I have added in an estimate of portfolio income using the assumed safe withdrawal rate, and even demonstrated the impact of superannuation assets strictly outside the portfolio on this measure.

Typically this graph is examined on a month by month basis, observing small changes.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – March 2026”

Line of Position – Reviewing the Bond Portfolio

There is no sin but ignorance

Christopher Marlowe, The Jew of Malta

Bonds have played a limited role in the financial independence portfolio so far. Hollowing the examination of the equity portfolio last month, however, it seemed fitting to complete the picture with a detailed look at the development of, and trends in, the bond and fixed interest holdings.

The last detailed examination of the fixed interest and bond components of the portfolio was undertaken in October 2019. This found that the bond portfolio was reasonably well-diversified, broadly index-aligned, and doing its job of providing ballast against equity volatility — even if it had largely arisen in conditions of ‘benign neglect’.

More than six years have passed since that examination. In the intervening period, global bond markets have experienced some of the most dramatic conditions in recent decades. These include the pandemic-era collapse of yields to historic lows, a sharp rate-hiking cycle from 2022 that delivered real capital losses to bond holders worldwide, and a gradual recovery since. The four decade secular bull market in bonds that seemed at risk of ending in 2019 did, in a sense, end — quite violently.

Along the way, some of the key assumptions underpinning the rationale for holding bonds have been tested in ways not seen for a generation.

Recapping the structure and history of the fixed interest and bond portfolio

When the bond portfolio was last examined in detail in October 2019, total bond and fixed interest holdings stood at around $257,000, representing just under 15 per cent of the overall portfolio.

That figure had itself slightly declined from a peak of around $260,000 reached in January 2018.

The chart below tells the fuller story across nearly two decades looking at all fixed interest holdings (e.g. bond holdings and Plenti peer to peer and capital note investments).

Continue reading “Line of Position – Reviewing the Bond Portfolio”

Monthly Portfolio Update – February 2026

Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world.

Arthur Schopenhauer

This is my one hundred and eleventh monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $3,250,000. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $112,000 (in 2026 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.45 per cent.

A secondary focus will be maintaining the minimum equity target of $2,600,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$995,439
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$50,114
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$86,371
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$95,318
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$699,678
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$986,477
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$358,037
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$324,307
Bitcoin$1,024,255
Plenti Capital Notes$84,000
Financial portfolio value (excluding Bitcoin)$3,679,741
(+$47,657)
Total portfolio value$4,703,996
(-$268,350)

Asset allocation

Australian shares30.8%
Global shares30.6%
Emerging market shares1.2%
International small companies1.3%
Total international shares33.1%
Total shares63.9% (-16.1%)
Australian bonds2.8%
International bonds3.8%
Total bonds6.6% (+1.6%)
Gold6.9%
Bitcoin21.8%
Gold and alternatives28.7% (+13.7%)

Presented visually, the pie chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the full portfolio.

Comments

This month the portfolio suffered a loss of $268,000 or around 5.4 per cent.

As a single month headline result, this is the eighth largest fall in portfolio ever experienced. It is also the fourth sequential monthly loss, an event which has not occurred in the history of portfolio previously.

The loss reflected continued declines in the price of Bitcoin, of around 24 per cent over the month.

Despite this, however, the smaller underlying portfolio of traditional financial assets continued to expand, hitting the highest value ever recorded ($3.67 million). By contrast, it has grown each of the past three months.

The chart below sets out the performance of both the full and ‘financial assets only’ portfolios since the commencement of the journey.

Through the month, geopolitical uncertainty continues to be heightened, with possible future military conflicts in the Persian gulf.

Australian economic developments have been dominated by a re-emergence of persistent inflationary forces, resulting in a tightening of interest rates. This occurred against a positive reporting season, which appeared to support stronger Australian equities performance (or 3.8 per cent) compared to a slight capital loss in the global equities holdings (1.1 per cent).

Gold holdings fell by around 2.0 per cent from the highs experienced at the end of the last month.

The month as previously small additional new investments were made in global equities (through the Vanguard exchange traded fund VGS), in accordance with the decision to regularly reinvest excess distributions and cash holdings.

Rose of the winds: reviewing trends and developments in the equity portfolio

Five and a half years ago, I provided a systematic analysis of the equity component of the financial independence portfolio. At that time, equities totalled $1.2 million. Today, they stand at approximately $3.0 million.

With this milestone, it seemed an opportune moment in the waning of the summer months to revisit the original mapping exercise – and the shorter snapshot in August 2022 – to see how the territory may have shifted using the compass provided by the passive indexing approach employed.

Equity holdings in the financial independence portfolio

Equities remain, as they have been since the inception, the driving force of the financial independence journey.

At the time of the first detailed review of in mid-2020, the equity portfolio stood at $1.2 million. By August 2022, that figure had grown to $1.7 million—around a 41 per cent increase.

The chart below highlights the progress of the equity portfolio in nominal value terms over the past nine years.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – February 2026”