Profits on the exchange are the treasures of goblins. At one time they may be carbuncle stones, then coals, then diamonds, then flint-stones, then morning dew, then tears.
Confusion de confusions, Joseph de la Vega (1688)
Around 1500 days ago this journey began with the objective of determining if it was possible for me to achieve the goal of financial independence.
Over time the precise objectives and targets have evolved, but this post is written to mark and record the – perhaps temporary – meeting of the portfolio goal of $2.18 million this week.
Consistent with much of the journey so far – it was unpredicted and happened in an unexpected way.
A recent surge in the value of Bitcoin, together with some equity market gains, has currently pushed the overall portfolio to just above the its target level. As Aussie HiFIRE remarked, this has resulted in the achievement of a novel kind of ‘BitFIRE’. This does not exactly sit comfortably within the mainstream vision of financial independence pathways. It is certainly not the way I would have ever contemplated reaching the end objective.
Tempting the fates
As someone with a classical history background just writing this post, in fact marking this occasion in any way, appears to be an open invitation for an urgent house call from Nemesis – the balancer of life, and punisher of hubris.
A sudden downward gust, an eddy in markets, or a repetition of previous long retreats from highs would be enough to make this a temporary aberration. Another year, or more, could easily stretch out before the portfolio objective is reached again in this kind of scenario. To be clear and precise, it is my current expectation that something like that scenario will occur.
Yet it is also a stubborn fact that previous milestones, once passed, have generally stayed passed from the momentum of the journey. Part of the purpose of this record is to set out my contemporaneous thoughts and perspectives on each part of the journey as it is being made, rather than withholding to appear falsely wise after the event about the course of progress. A time capsule, rather than a finished product.
Continue reading “In Way of Harbour – An End of the Journey?”
