Line of Position – Superannuation and the Financial Independence Portfolio

A ship should not ride on a single anchor, nor life on a single hope.

Epictetus, Golden Sayings, Fragment xvi

Setting out: looking beyond the horizon

In sea navigation, lines of position allow the fixing of the true position of a ship by helping to account for drift from wind or currents.

Each month this record regularly assesses the position reached with a relatively narrow focus on changes and trends affecting the financial independence portfolio. This is consistent with the intention of documenting a journey towards financial independence, and retirement well before the traditional age.

The primary focus on financial independence has meant that until the beginning of 2019, I did not regularly record the impact of superannuation on the achievement of the portfolio’s objectives.

From that time, I recorded a simple ‘All Assets’ measure of progress, which effectively counted the impact of superannuation on the measures. Typically, super has recently represented around 30 per cent of additional ‘buffer’ on progress against the goals set.

In this longer post, the aim is to look beyond the FI portfolio which is reported on, and provide more detail on what the whole financial asset picture looks like – taking into account both superannuation and the FI portfolio.

Measuring the changing position across the journey so far

The goal and plan has always been to target financial independence through my private investment portfolio alone, with superannuation perhaps providing an additional margin of safety.

Reflecting this, superannuation – the approximate Australian equivalent to 401K accounts in the US – has been a quietly evolving part of this financial journey in the background, since the earliest phases.

Over time, I have generally sought to contribute beyond the minimum guarantee amounts, making voluntary contributions with the approximate target of reaching an average 15 per cent of earnings in overall contributions.

This has resulted in a steady growth in the superannuation across time, as can be seen in Figure 1 below.

Chart - Total Super Balance

Clearly evident above are the impact of some market declines – in the second half of 2018, and the most recent March 2020 market falls. Yet also as apparent is the overall trend of steadily compounding returns across time.

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Monthly Portfolio Update – August 2021

Nothing is so simple that at first sight it is not rather difficult to believe.

Lucretius

This is my fifty-seventh monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2,585,000 by 31 July 2022. This would produce a real annual income of about $90,500 (in 2021 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$827,990
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$44,452
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$80,423
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$101,260
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$360,383
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$227,040
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$297,832
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,046
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$6,639
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$8,124
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$112,377
Secured physical gold$17,967
Plenti (P2P lending)$1,479
Bitcoin$727,780
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)$21,380
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)$3,502
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)$4,982
Total portfolio value$2,845,658
(+$162,232)

Asset allocation

Australian shares35.9%
Global shares21.7%
Emerging market shares1.6%
International small companies2.0%
Total international shares25.3%
Total shares61.2% (-13.8%)
Total property securities0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds2.6%
International bonds5.8%
Total bonds8.5% (-6.5%)
Gold4.6%
Bitcoin25.6%
Gold and alternatives30.2% (+20.2%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Asset Allocation Pie Chart

Comments

This month the financial independence portfolio has surged to its highest level on the journey, growing 5.7 per cent or $162,000.

This results in the portfolio reaching $2.84 million, overtaking short-lived peaks in March and April.

Graph of Monthly Portfolio Value

This is nearly double the growth of the last month, and clearly came from two main sources.

First, the value of Bitcoin holdings increased by around 14 per cent, or nearly $100,000. The second area of expansion was equities, where international shares grew by 3.6 per cent. Similarly, Australian equities increased in value by around 2.5 per cent, or around $23,000.

In contrast to this, both gold and bond holdings were largely stable.

Strong equity markets have also taken the equity component of the portfolio to its highest ever level, meaning that total equity holdings are at 90 per cent of the intended target allocation (estimated as $1.9 million, or around 75 per cent of the total portfolio goal).

Applying my longer-term asset allocation glide-path towards an equal balance between global and Australian shares, this month new investments have been exclusively directed to the Vanguard global shares (VGS) fund.

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