Monthly Portfolio Update – June 2022

Begin doing what you want to do now. We are not living in eternity. We have only this moment, sparkling like a star in our hand and melting like a snowflake.

Sir Francis Bacon

This is my sixty-seventh monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $2,620,000 through 2022. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $91,600 (in 2022 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

A secondary focus through 2022 will be achieving the minimum equity target of $2,100,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$722,974
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$38,832
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$70,238
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$88,101
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$345,217
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$318,198
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$262,967
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,052
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$5,524
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$8,856
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$119,070
Secured physical gold$18,961
Plenti (P2P lending)$12
Bitcoin$313,070
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)$18,915
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)$3,110
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)$4,719
Total portfolio value$2,340,816
(-$281,221)

Asset allocation

Australian shares39.6%
Global shares28.1%
Emerging market shares1.7%
International small companies2.1%
Total international shares32.0%
Total shares71.6% (-8.4%)
Total property securities0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds2.7%
International bonds6.2%
Total bonds8.9% (+3.9%)
Gold5.9%
Bitcoin13.4%
Gold and alternatives19.3% (+4.3%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Chart - Asset Allocation

Comments

This month has seen the third largest decline in the portfolio since this record began in 2017 – with a loss in total value of over $281,000.

These falls follow two previous consecutive monthly losses, marking an unprecedented period of continuous losses extending since April.

Overall, the portfolio lost 10.7 per cent of its starting value in the past month. This has drawn it back to levels last seen in early 2021.

The portfolio has consequently fallen below the revised portfolio goal of $2.62 million at the end of the month, meaning the notional option to cease paid work has evaporated quickly, and perhaps for some time.

Chart - Monthy portfolio value

Just over one-third of the losses this month occurred in the traditional assets of equities, with some additional losses in fixed interest. A little less than two-thirds of the monthly fall in value is a function of some major price falls in the Bitcoin portfolio (of around 36 per cent).

Australian equities were one of the areas of most substantial losses, with falls of around 8.5 per cent. By comparison, international equities (and particularly US equities on an unhedged basis) fell around 5.0 per cent.

Bonds continued to perform poorly, losing around 2.7 per cent, while gold holdings slightly increased in value (around 2 per cent).

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – June 2022”

Monthly Portfolio Update – May 2022

Make a spot in the middle of your mind where you can lie hidden, rejoice, and relax with no one interrupting you.

Petrarch

This is my sixty-sixth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $2,620,000 through 2022. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $91,600 (in 2022 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

A secondary focus through 2022 will be achieving the minimum equity target of $2,100,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$763,710
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$40,760
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$73,303
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$90,568
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$378,234
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$320,331
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$287,538
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,068
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$5,536
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$8,868
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$116,688
Secured physical gold$18,607
Plenti (P2P lending)$23
Bitcoin$487,750
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)$20,142
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)$3,196
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)$4,715
Total portfolio value$2,622,037
(-$158,939)

Asset allocation

Australian shares38.2%
Global shares25.9%
Emerging market shares1.6%
International small companies2.0%
Total international shares29.5%
Total shares67.7% (-12.3%)
Total property securities0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds2.5%
International bonds5.8%
Total bonds8.3% (+3.3%)
Gold5.2%
Bitcoin18.6%
Gold and alternatives23.8% (+8.8%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Chart - Asset Allocation

Comments

This month is a story in two parts – with declines across both the traditional financial portfolio, and in the value of Bitcoin holdings.

Combined, these led to an overall loss of about $159,000 or around 5.7 per cent of the total portfolio value.

The portfolio has narrowly stayed above the revised portfolio goal of $2.62 million at the end of the month, but through the month dipped below it for the first time in nearly a year.

Monthy portfolio value - graph

More than three-quarters of the absolute decline in portfolio value was caused by a fall of around 20 per cent in the price of Bitcoin over the month.

These falls occurred as inflation outcomes continued to illustrate the potential need for monetary policy tightening to the market, and the price of Bitcoin was also likely impacted by the failure of the Terra Luna algorithmic stablecoin.

The remainder of the portfolio loss was largely attributable to simultaneous declines in Australian and global share indexes. These each fell between 2 to 2.5 per cent.

Completing the overall negative pattern were falls in gold (of 3.3 per cent) and continued further declines in the value of bonds or fixed interest (0.2 per cent).

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – May 2022”

Monthly Portfolio Update – April 2022

The shouting, wounds, and blood were in plain view, the cause was hidden: fortune ruled the rest

Tacitus, Annals, Bk.I

This is my sixty-fifth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $2,620,000 through 2022. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $91,600 (in 2022 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

A secondary focus through 2022 will be achieving the minimum equity target of $2,100,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$780,458
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$41,461
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$74,230
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$90,708
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$389,075
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$315,367
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$295,734
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,153
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$5,752
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$8,496
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$120,610
Secured physical gold$19,357
Plenti (P2P lending)$23
Bitcoin$609,240
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)$20,349
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)$3,252
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)$4,711
Total portfolio value$2,780,976
(-$115,727)

Asset allocation

Australian shares37.0%
Global shares24.5%
Emerging market shares1.5%
International small companies1.9%
Total international shares28.0%
Total shares65.0% (-15.0%)
Total property securities0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds2.4%
International bonds5.5%
Total bonds7.9% (+2.9%)
Gold5.0%
Bitcoin21.9%
Gold and alternatives26.9% (+11.9%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Chart - Asset Allocation

Comments

This month twin winds hit the portfolio, leading to an overall loss of $115,000, or 4 per cent.

As a result, over half of the gains of the previous month were erased.

The portfolio is currently within sight, though a bit above, its total value twelve months ago. The past year has been a relatively volatile period in absolute terms, reinforced by the growth in the overall size of the portfolio, and its exposure to Bitcoin.

The value of the portfolio continues to be above the revised portfolio goal of $2.62 million, as it has since late July last year.

Monthy portfolio value - graph

This month Bitcoin declined significantly, falling around 13 per cent, representing the largest part of the overall decline. By contrast, gold enjoyed a positive capital return of around 4 per cent over the month.

International share holdings also fell by 2.8 per cent amidst strong signs of monetary tightenings to come in developed economies. Australian shares produced a negative return of around 0.5 per cent, once distributions were accounted for.

Continuing the negative picture, bond holdings fell by 2.6 per cent. This means in dollar terms the bond portfolio holdings are at their lowest value since late 2015, and are also close to their lowest level ever as a proportion of the portfolio.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – April 2022”

Monthly Portfolio Update – March 2022

Time forks perpetually towards innumerable futures

Jorge Luis Borges, The Garden of Forking Paths

This is my sixty-fourth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $2,620,000 through 2022. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $91,600 (in 2022 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

A secondary focus through 2022 will be achieving the minimum equity target of $2,100,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$801,655
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$42,562
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$76,143
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$93,082
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$400,699
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$305,098
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$300,813
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,110
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$5,549
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$7,632
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$116,270
Secured physical gold$18,552
Plenti (P2P lending)$28
Bitcoin$697,880
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)$20,594
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)$3,329
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)$4,707
Total portfolio value$2,896,703
(+$190,975)

Asset allocation

Australian shares36.3%
Global shares23.5%
Emerging market shares1.5%
International small companies1.9%
Total international shares26.9%
Total shares63.3% (-16.7%)
Total property securities0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds2.4%
International bonds5.4%
Total bonds7.8% (+2.8%)
Gold4.7%
Bitcoin24.1%
Gold and alternatives28.7% (+13.7%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Chart - Asset Allocation

Comments

This month the portfolio has increased by around $191,000, or around 7.1 per cent, which is the strongest performance in the past five months. This breaks the run of two relatively flat monthly outcomes since the beginning of the year.

Stepping back, this growth means that the portfolio now sits at approximately double the level reached three years ago, even though it has only just recovered to the level reach at the end of last August.

The portfolio continues to be above the revised portfolio goal of $2.62 million.

Monthy portfolio value - graph

A major reversal in the price of Bitcoin occurred over the past month, with its value rising around 19 per cent. This has delivered over half of the total portfolio gains made since last month.

The other significant source of growth was a 7.0 per cent advance in the value of Australian shares. Despite a poor start to the month, international equity investments gained around 2.2 per cent. This brought the value of total equity holdings to above $1.8 million, returning equities overall to close to their highest ever level.

By contrast, the value of gold assets held fell by 3.5 per cent, and bond holdings also suffered significant capital losses – of 2.5 per cent – as yields rise. This continues to leave the overall bond portfolio at the lowest levels last experienced in 2016.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – March 2022”