All of this has happened before. All of this will happen again.

J.M.Barrie, Peter Pan

This is my seventieth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $2,620,000 through 2022. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $91,600 (in 2022 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

A secondary focus through 2022 will be achieving the minimum equity target of $2,100,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund	$678,031
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund	$36,524
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund	$66,842
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund	$85,539
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)	$336,849
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)	$372,579
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)	$254,676
Telstra shares (TLS)	$2,052
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)	$5,828
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)	$8,922
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)	$115,862
Secured physical gold	$18,365
Bitcoin	$333,214
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)	$18,111
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)	$2,993
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)	$4,635
Total portfolio value	$2,341,022 (-$63,972)

Asset allocation

Australian shares	38.2%
Global shares	29.6%
Emerging market shares	1.6%
International small companies	2.0%
Total international shares	33.2%
Total shares	71.3% (-8.7%)
Total property securities	0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds	2.6%
International bonds	5.9%
Total bonds	8.5% (+3.5%)
Gold	5.7%
Bitcoin	14.2%
Gold and alternatives	20.0% (+5.0%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Comments

Losses in the portfolio worsened this month, with a futher fall of around $64,000 in the value of the portfolio. This resulted in a contraction of 2.3 per cent in the size of the overall portfolio.

This means that the portfolio now sits just above a level orginally reached in the early months of 2021. In other words, a period of more than 20 months has passed, with no sustained increase in portfolio value.

The portfolio continues to sits well under the overall revised portfolio goal of $2.62 million.

The largest losses this month occurred in the Australian shares segment of the portfolio, with falls of around 6.3 per cent in the value of holdings. By contrast international shares fell by slightly less, only losing 3.9 per cent.

Bonds also continued to fall in value, as yields sharply increased through the month. The value of bonds declined 3.4 per cent, and total holdings fell to under $200,000 for the first time since the second half of 2015.

In a break from past months, Bitcoin has defied recent correlations with equities markets and slightly gained in value across the month, rising by 1.9 per cent. Similarly, gold as a defensive asset has moved from recent losses to increase by more than 2.5 per cent on a monthly basis.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – September 2022”

The wind sits within the shoulder of your sail

And you are stay’d for.

Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act I: Scene 3

This is my sixty-ninth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $2,620,000 through 2022. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $91,600 (in 2022 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

A secondary focus through 2022 will be achieving the minimum equity target of $2,100,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund	$714,600
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund	$38,340
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund	$69,879
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund	$88,511
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)	$359,644
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)	$359,544
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)	$271,514
Telstra shares (TLS)	$2,116
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)	$5,891
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)	$9,816
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)	$112,897
Secured physical gold	$17,951
Bitcoin	$327,060
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)	$19,478
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)	$3,121
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)	$4,632
Total portfolio value	$2,404,994 (-$36,598)

Asset allocation

Australian shares	39.5%
Global shares	28.9%
Emerging market shares	1.6%
International small companies	2.1%
Total international shares	32.6%
Total shares	72.1% (-7.9%)
Total property securities	0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds	2.6%
International bonds	6.0%
Total bonds	8.6% (+3.6%)
Gold	5.4%
Bitcoin	13.6%
Gold and alternatives	19.0% (+4.0%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Comments

This month overall losses of around $36,000 were sustained in the value of the portfolio, reducing the portfolio by around 1.5 per cent in total.

With this outcome, over a third of the increases of July were essentially lost. Over the past 12 months, the majority of months have now registered as delivering portfolio losses.

The portfolio now sits below the overall revised portfolio goal of $2.62 million at the end of the month, as it has since the end of May.

Losses occurred broadly across much of the portfolio through the month.

Bitcoin holdings were reduced in value by around 14 per cent, as the prospect of higher interest rates were absorbed by financial markets. These losses were principally responsible for the total fall in portfolio value.

The value of international equities also fell from some initial gains within the month, to end lower, by around 0.8 per cent. Australian shares managed to end the month around 1.0 per cent higher. Bonds also fell in value sharply, by 2.4 per cent and gold holdings fell by 0.7 per cent also.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – August 2022”

Tomorrow we’ll sail the wide seas again

Horace, Odes, Bk I:VII

This is my sixty-eighth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $2,620,000 through 2022. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $91,600 (in 2022 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.5 per cent.

A secondary focus through 2022 will be achieving the minimum equity target of $2,100,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund	$714,803
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund	$38,546
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund	$70,603
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund	$90,727
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)	$355,563
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)	$348,094
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)	$268,999
Telstra shares (TLS)	$2,073
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)	$5,663
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)	$8,688
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)	$113,675
Secured physical gold	$18,168
Plenti (P2P lending)	$6
Bitcoin	$378,820
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio)	$19,389
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio)	$3,125
BrickX (P2P rental real estate)	$4,650
Total portfolio value	$2,441,592 (+100,776)

Asset allocation

Australian shares	38.6%
Global shares	28.1%
Emerging market shares	1.6%
International small companies	2.0%
Total international shares	31.7%
Total shares	70.2% (-9.8%)
Total property securities	0.2% (+0.2%)
Australian bonds	2.6%
International bonds	6.0%
Total bonds	8.6% (+3.6%)
Gold	5.4%
Bitcoin	15.5%
Gold and alternatives	20.9% (+5.9%)

Presented visually, the chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.

Comments

This month the portfolio grew strongly, gaining around $100,000 following the three preceding consecutive months of large losses.

A growth of this size is a relatively unusual event in the record since 2017, having only happened around ten times previously. It is similar in size to the the recovery shortly after the March 2020 coronavirus induced market uncertainty.

The portfolio has grown by around 4.3 per cent, to recover to a level first reached across early 2021. It remains, however,well below the revised portfolio goal of $2.62 million at the end of the month.

The majority of gains over the month were caused by a 20 per cent increase in the price of Bitcoin, off June lows. These increases represented around two-thirds of the portfolio’s movement this month.

Both Australian and international equities also increased.

Global shares increased in value by 4.7 per cent through the month, with some of this gain likely related to the impact of a falling Australian dollars on the unhedged component. Australian equities increased by around 3 per cent.

At the same time, dividends of around three per cent were paid out in the case of Australian shares, and less than one per cent in the case of international equities. As these are generally held for regular reinvestment, this can introduce an apparent downward movement in the case of distribution months such as January and July.

Bonds continued a recent pattern of correlation with equities, rising in value around 3 per cent. Gold underwent a significant price decline this month, of around 4.5 per cent.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – July 2022”