Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowthRobert Frost, The Road Not Taken
This is my forty-second portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
- Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $727 917
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 128
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 569
- Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 009
- Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $187 003
- Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 987
- Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $225 540
- Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 726
- Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 741
- NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 652
- Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 714
- Secured physical gold – $18 982
- Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $11 395
- Bitcoin – $159 470
- Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 357
- Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 492
- BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477
Total portfolio value: $1 757 159 (+$62 325 or 3.7%)
Asset allocation
- Australian shares – 41.4% (3.6% under)
- Global shares – 22.2%
- Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
- International small companies – 3.0%
- Total international shares – 27.4% (2.6% under)
- Total shares – 68.8% (6.2% under)
- Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
- Australian bonds – 4.4%
- International bonds – 9.7%
- Total bonds – 14.1% (0.9% under)
- Gold – 7.8%
- Bitcoin – 9.1%
- Gold and alternatives – 16.9% (6.9% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month featured a further recovery in the overall portfolio, continuing to effectively reduce the size of the large losses across the first quarter.
The portfolio has increased by around $62 000, leading to a portfolio growth of 3.7 per cent. This means that around half of the large recent falls have been made up, and the portfolio sits around levels last reached in October of last year.
Leading the portfolio growth has been increases in Australian shares – particularly those held through the Betashares A200 and Vanguard VAS exchange traded funds, with both gaining over four per cent. Most other holdings remained steady, or fell slightly.
Markets appear to be almost entirely disconnected from the daily announcements of the sharp effects of the global coronavirus pandemic and the resulting restrictions. Bond and equity markets seem to have different and competing expectations for the future, and equity markets – at best – are apparently intent on looking through the immediate recovery phase to a new period of strong expansion.
On some metrics, both major global and Australian equity markets can be viewed as quite expensive, especially as reduced dividends announced have largely yet to be delivered. Yet if historically low bond yields are considered, it can be argued that some heightening compared to historical equity market valuations may be sustainable.
Reflecting this moment of markets holding their breath before one of two possible futures plays out, gold and Bitcoin remain elevated, and consequently above their target weightings.
The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month.
