He who has begun has half done.Horace Epistles (Book I.ii)
Year in review
This year began with resetting my objectives to reach a portfolio value of $1 476 000 by the end of the year, to support an annual passive income of around $58 000.
This goal has not been met, despite the overall portfolio coming within about $60 000 of the target in September. Just as expected at the start of 2018, it did indeed prove a more challenging environment for closing on this goal than the previous year.
In fact, instead of reaching the target as hoped, the portfolio actually finished the past year around 3 per cent below where it commenced at the start of 2018, despite significant investments regularly though the year.
The reasons for this are two-fold.
First, the fall in the price of Bitcoin from its highs early in 2018 has provided a steady, and sometimes sharp, headwind to the journey. Through the year the resulting loss of around $130 000 simply could not reasonably be made up for, even assuming good performance of all other assets. Bitcoin has reduced from 14% to just 4.5% of the portfolio, so perhaps the only positive to take from this grinding performance is that it will not have the ability to have this same kind of depressing effect on next years record. Nonetheless, I am happy enough to retain my current holdings. This is because I agree with sentiments from Nassim Taleb that it represents a unique form of insurance policy against very poor future outcomes.
Second, recent falls in equity markets have worsened the results. Given normal volatility in shares, however, this has not concerned me or reduced my intention to continue to invest in equities. What is perhaps more interesting than a negative single year performance of shares is that 2018 has been highly unusual in the high proportion of all asset classes experiencing negative returns.
Overall, the failure to meet my objective #1 is not particularly surprising or a source of dissatisfaction. It has been on the cards for the last few months, and I have had time to adjust. An additional factor has been that my nominal passive income target of $58 000 per year has been the same since July 2016, unadjusted for inflation, or median income movements. This has meant that I have known for some time that I would not be likely to feel comfortable with it as a defining triggering point of financial independence. Thus it has felt like missing a target that had more symbolic than practical or intrinsic meaning.
Finally, I’m sanguine about missing the target because I think that with the passage of time and ongoings savings, passing that particular value will be most likely be achieved, even if perhaps 6-18 months later than anticipated.
Rather, the achievements of this past year that stand out are:
- Continued exploration: this has included switching from use of Vanguard retail funds to regular investments in low cost ETFs such as the Betashares A200, using a low cost broker, lowering management costs on new investments, and trying new Fintech providers such as Spaceship.
- Following the course: having set an asset allocation plan, this has driven portfolio choices that inertia and absence of a plan would not have, such as a systematic reduction in my Ratesetter holdings, regular new investments in Australian equities during periods of volatility, and stopping allocation of any new funds to bonds.
A pleasing part of the past year has also been the growth in readership, which I am grateful to readers for. This has genuinely been a pleasant surprise, and has been somewhat accelerated by a kind profile of Australian FI bloggers in the April edition of Money Magazine.
As I do each year at this time, I have been reviewing my investment policy and looking at possible new goals. I have also been stress-testing my plans, assumptions and asset allocations.
Before finalising these, as with last year, I want to understand the shape and level of fund and ETF distributions arising from the past six months. This means waiting until December distributions are finalised or announced. I am looking forward to sharing these updated plans – including possibly some new portfolio objectives – in the next couple of weeks or so.
Monthly Portfolio Update – December 2018
This is my twenty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals which, as mentioned, are likely to be evolving soon.
Portfolio goals
For the moment, however, my objectives were to reach a portfolio of:
- $1 476 000 by 31 December 2018. This would produce a real income of about $58 000 (Objective #1).
- $2 041 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $80 000 in 2017 dollars (Objective #2)
Both of these were based on a real return of 3.92%, or a nominal return of 7.17%
Portfolio summary
- Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $669 046
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 448
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $72 167
- Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $101 645
- Vanguard Australia Shares ETF (VAS) – $71 070
- Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $138 346
- Telstra shares – $3 799
- Insurance Australia Group shares – $12 208
- NIB Holdings shares – $6 240
- Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $82 863
- Secured physical gold – $13 365
- Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $30 131
- Bitcoin – $59 570
- Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $ 12 584
- Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $1 430
- BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 851
Total value: $1 318 763 (-$13 869)
Asset allocation
- Australian shares – 38%
- International shares – 24%
- Emerging markets shares – 3%
- International small companies – 4%
- Total shares – 68.9% (3.9% over)**
- Australian property securities – 0.4%
- Total property – 0.4% (4.1% under)
- Australian bonds – 7%
- International bonds – 12%
- Total bonds – 18.8% (3.8% over)**
- Cash – 1.3%
- Gold – 7.3%
- Bitcoin – 4.5%
- Gold and alternatives – 11.8% (3.2% under)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of how the asset allocation of the portfolio currently looks.
Comments
The portfolio has fallen short of the target, reflecting the factors discussed above. Over this month I have concentrated on continuing to make new investments though the significant equity market volatility, while undertaking some of the reflection and research required for the review of my investment policy and goals.
For the sharp-eyed a small but significant change in allocation seems to have occurred in the past month. This is because in the course of reviewing of my investment plans and working sheets I have had time to integrate some larger than initially expected changes made to the Vanguard Lifestrategy retail funds standard pre-set asset allocations.
The effect of this has been to lower my property security allocation to almost nothing, and mildly increase my share allocation. It has also shifted the balance between Australian and foreign equities. Rather fortuitously, this has moved in the direction I was actually intending to pursue, increasing my international equity exposure, which had previously stagnated as my Australian equity ETF index purchases occurred through this year.
The last few months have seen the largest ever declines in my overall portfolio, giving a sense of ‘treading water’ while making regular purchases into a falling, or at best sideways, market. Positively, this has seen purchases of A200 at the lowest prices I have paid so far. This adds some minor upside to the generally unhappy story of portfolio value over the year set out below.
Progress
Progress to:
- Objective #1: 89.3% or $157 237 further to reach goal.
- Objective #2: 64.6% or $722 237 further to reach goal.
Summary
As summer heat has kept me inside, there has been ample time to take a long perspective on the journey so far, and the shifting priorities and themes of the year. What has become more apparent is the sense of building momentum, particularly in the passive income element of the portfolio.
Calculating the other day, I discovered that 2018 was, in paper value terms, the most difficult, loss-making part of my long journey so far. That it does not feel this way is testament to my increasing focus on and confidence from two other components of the journey – portfolio income, and its steadily growing capacity to meet regular life expenses.
The next few days, and specifically knowledge of distributions that are due to be calculated and paid, will prove important for my future sense of the speed of progress. It’s not impossible that distributions, like the portfolio value, could go backwards compared to the last few periods. The level of distributions will determine other important parts of my investment plan – such as required emergency fund levels, and insurance coverage levels.
So as 2019 begins, progress continues, and distributions and the new information they provide will flow into my next updated set of plans for financial independence.
** These variances have been recalculated from this month onwards to be in reference to my longer term allocation targets for equities and bonds (65/15), rather than a previous lower transitional target of 61-62 over the past two years.
This is not the first time this type of prolonged portfolio ‘levelling off’ has happened. A similar period of continued investment but little or no growth in the portfolio occurred in 2011. During and beyond this earlier period of stagnant portfolio value, however, regular new investments increased the underlying asset base, and resulted in continued growth in the level of distributions.
It shows that taxable investment income at least has not yet reached close to my target Objective #1 of passive income of $58 000, even as in the past year my actual ‘cash in hand’ dividends have reached and exceeded that figure. Measured in percentage terms, better data availability means I can give a much longer series giving a sense of progression over time.