Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens.

Epictetus

This is my twenty-first portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.

Portfolio goals

My current objectives are to reach a portfolio of:

• $1 476 000 by 31 December 2018. This should produce a real income of about $58 000 (Objective #1).
• $2 041 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $80 000 in 2017 dollars (Objective #2)

Both of these are based on a real return of 3.92%, or a nominal return of 7.17%

Portfolio summary

• Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth – $743 491
• Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth  – $ 42 691
• Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced – $ 76 095
• Vanguard Diversified Bonds – $100 542
• Vanguard ETF Australia Shares ETF (VAS) – $79 787
• Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $90 985
• Telstra shares – $4 132
• Insurance Australia Group shares – $19 284
• NIB Holdings – $7 824
• Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)  – $76 095
• Secured physical gold – $12 212
• Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $35 692
• Bitcoin – $106 623
• Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $ 12 910
• Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $1 329
• BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 823

Total value: $1 414 649 (+$41 435) 

Asset allocation

• Australian shares –  38%
• International shares – 18%
• Emerging markets shares – 2%
• International small companies – 3%
• Total shares – 61.5% (3.5% under)**
• Australian property securities – 3%
• International property securities 3%
• Total property – 6.2% (1.2% over)
• Australian bonds – 8%
• International bonds – 9%
• Total bonds – 17.3% (2.3% over)**
• Cash – 1.3%
• Gold – 6.4%
• Bitcoin – 8.7%
• Gold and alternatives – 15.1% (0.1% over)

Comments

Overall, the portfolio has now closed above $1.4 million for the first time since the heights of the temporary Bitcoin fever early this year, with growth of over $41 000 this month. This means I am now only around $60 000 away from achieving my first objective. In theory, this could occur within a few short months if markets move positively. Alternatively, a market setback could see it receding back to the target date of the end of this year, and even beyond. The sensation of seeing one finish line approach is interesting.  A summary of the progress of the portfolio through time can be seen below.

From one perspective, it feels like a significant, life-changing milestone is in prospect. On the other hand, however, it leads to pondering with a greater focus than ever before about precisely what that objective would mean, in living standard terms, compared to other objectives.

As an example, I can trace back the goal of providing for a stream of passive income of $58 000 to at least July 2009. Back then, my return assumptions were optimistic, and I envisaged the goal being achievable around 2020. The movement of inflation means that the target of $58 000 is around the median Australian income, but below the mean average. One of the issues I intend to review in January is whether I need to adjust this target to take into account inflation and average income growth from when I originally made it.

My major new investments have focused on Betashares A200, the lowest cost vehicle to build Australian equity exposure. From May of this year, I have invested over $88 000 in this investment vehicle. This has a weighting of 33 per cent to Australia’s financial sector, so with the ongoing Royal Commission and future regulatory risks, it is not an entirely anxiety-free prospect. My reasoning for continuing to invest is my long-term interest in the dividend component of the return, the fact that the Australian market continuing to trade closer to its historical average, and a concern to avoid currency risks and US market valuation risk from other globally diversified ETF options.

I am considering making further investments in BrickX, as they have two new properties available, which would help further diversify the very small residential property allocation in my portfolio. However, the entry transaction fees are very high (1.75%), and the available rental yields looks extremely unattractive. Overall, with current declines in the residential property markets, it does not seem a fruitful time to extend my exploration of this area in any more significant way.

One savings focus over the past month has been on reconsidering my insurance requirements, based on likely future distributions flows. Previously, I adopted a highly conservative approach to both income and life insurance that almost completely ignored the income stream of future dividends from my portfolio. I have updated these policies to at least partially reflect likely annual distribution payments – based on a backward looking average of the past four years of distributions. This has allowed me to reduce my overall level of coverage to target the income assurance level right for my circumstances, while saving on unnecessary insurance premiums. This has led to over $600 additional contributions to my investment portfolio, and will lock in an annual saving as well.

Finally, it feels like it has been a month of lively debate, including on Reddit, about different investment approaches. I have enjoyed these, as it helps test and strengthen my thinking, and be clear about why I adopt my current approach of a passive index-based and diversified approach, with a focus on total returns (capital and dividends). One of the reason for this diversified approach, compared to narrow Australian equity only approaches, is because high Australian dividend yields likely come with lower overall equity returns compared to those countries with lower dividends. The case for passive investment is nicely detailed in video here. In between time I have been enjoying reading new blogs from the growing Australian FIRE community, such as Path to Fire and HIFIRE.  I have also been engrossed in a fascinating audiobook version of The Bitcoin Standard, an economic perspective on the history of money and possible future and value of Bitcoin.

Progress

Progress to:

• Objective #1: 95.8% or $61 351 further to reach goal.
• Objective #2: 69.3% or $626 351 further to reach goal.

Summary

Approach my first objective has a feeling of required natural caution surrounding it. Like stepping over a crack in a rock floor, or approaching an unknown cliff edge, one is never entirely sure of the footing or terrain on the other side. It’s possible that this sensation will be one I live with for one, two or three years, depending on market movements and any number of possible developments. I find myself caught between divergent feelings of restlessness, and also a desire to slow down and mentally imprint what this phase of the journey feels like.

** These variances have been recalculated from this month onwards to be in reference to my longer term allocation targets for equities and bonds (65/15), rather than a previous lower transitional target of 61-62 over the past two years.

Mens fortunes are on a wheel, which in its turning suffers not the same man to prosper for ever.

Herodotus

This is my twentieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.

Portfolio goals

My current objectives are to reach a portfolio of:

• $1 476 000 by 31 December 2018. This should produce a real income of about $58 000 (Objective #1).
• $2 041 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $80 000 in 2017 dollars (Objective #2)

Both of these are based on a real return of 3.92%, or a nominal return of 7.17%

Portfolio summary

• Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth – $727 907
• Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth  – $41 957
• Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced – $75 075
• Vanguard Diversified Bonds – $100 122
• Vanguard ETF Australia Shares ETF (VAS) – $78 653
• Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $55 263
• Telstra shares – $3 785
• Insurance Australia Group shares – $20 083
• NIB Holdings – $6 768
• Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)  – $75 509
• Secured physical gold – $12 058
• Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $38 431
• Bitcoin – $119 600
• Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $12 077
• Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $1 215
• BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 711

Total value: $ 1 373 214 (+$34 066) 

Asset allocation

• Australian shares –  36%
• International shares – 18%
• Emerging markets shares – 3%
• International small companies – 3%
• Total shares – 59.5% (1.5% under)
• Australian property securities – 3%
• International property securities 3%
• Total property – 6.2% (1.2% over)
• Australian bonds – 9%
• International bonds – 9%
• Total bonds – 17.8% (2.8% over)
• Cash – 1.3%
• Gold – 6.4%
• Bitcoin – 8.7%
• Gold and alternatives – 15.1% (0.1% over)

Comments

The allocation of distributions for the last half-year has been the most significant decision over the past month. After some thought my allocation decision was to do three things:

• $1 000 investment in Spaceship index – the logic being that this has no fees, is consistent with indexed globally diversified approach, and putting a significant amount at risk will better test my views of its performance.
• $10 700 set aside for future tax liabilities – this is to avoid having to sell an investment to meet a future ‘surprise’ or higher than expected tax liability, arising from capital gains.
• $29 000 investment in A200 Australian equity ETF – this is due to this being the lowest cost vehicle for exposure to Australia equity markets, and is consistent with seeking to reach my target equity allocation. The Australian equity market continues to appear more fairly value on a dividend yield and price to earnings ratio than global markets (taking into account US valuations).

Seeing such a significant re-investment in the portfolio has felt motivating, and increased the sense that momentum is shifting. Each fortnight this has been added to by a regular additional investment in A200, supplemented by the slow draw down of Ratesetter loans as they mature.

Movement in my portfolio has been limited, aside from distributions. My reliance on A200 for recent investments is slowly building my Australian equity exposure. At some point, I will need to consider ‘how much is too much’ domestic exposure.

With past financial years distribution finalised, my curiosity also turned to the question touched on in my last post, that is, the proportion of my credit card expenses that can now be said to be notionally met by portfolio distributions. After much exploration with spreadsheets, averages, and assumptions the results are below. Whichever way the data is analysed, around September of last year I reached the ‘cross over’ point (the concept made popular by Your Money or Your Life) in terms of credit card expenses.

Credit card expenses are obviously volatile from month to month, and the distributions line is an averaged per month figure from the total annual distributions. Obviously, all of my expenses don’t occur through my credit card – though I would estimate around 80-90 per cent do. This means it is just short of a full ‘cross over point’. Nonetheless, it is an arresting and motivating fact to consider that each time I use my credit card to buy an essential item, the portfolio is notionally paying that expense.

Over the past month, I have also signed up to join the waitlist for Xinja, a new app based banking product, featuring a pre-paid card and spending categorisation. I need to study this further, as functionality seems restricted to joining a queue at the moment. Making someone join a queue for access to services seems a non-intuitive way to signal a commitment to disrupting traditional banking models, but my curiosity is still piqued. Finally, I listened to an interesting Equity Mates podcast with the founder of Raiz (formerly Acorns), who gave an insight into where that fintech product was going in the future, and the challenges facing fintech startups.

Progress

Progress to:

• Objective #1: 93.0% or $102 786 further to reach goal.
• Objective #2: 67.3% or $667 786 further to reach goal.

Summary

Looking at the graph above of credit card expenses versus portfolio income feels like a peculiarly tangible manifestation of the gradual approach of financial independence. It’s provided an extra impetus to be careful of what I purchase, and to try to keep the blue line below the red. July distributions will hopefully increase my future portfolio income, even as I continue to expect a significant reversal in capital markets over the coming year.