Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world.Albert Camus, The Plague
This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
- Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099
- Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500
- Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095
- Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852
- Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149
- Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630
- Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855
- NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156
- Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254
- Secured physical gold – $19 211
- Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106
- Bitcoin – $115 330
- Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094
- Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 303
- BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 492
Total portfolio value: $1 566 946 (-$236 479 or -13.1%)
Asset allocation
- Australian shares – 40.6% (4.4% under)
- Global shares – 22.3%
- Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
- International small companies – 3.0%
- Total international shares – 27.6% (2.4% under)
- Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under)
- Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
- Australian bonds – 4.8%
- International bonds – 10.4%
- Total bonds – 15.2% (0.2% over)
- Gold – 8.8%
- Bitcoin – 7.4%
- Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw an extremely rapid collapse in market prices for a broad range of assets across the world, driven by the acceleration of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Broad and simultaneous market falls have resulted in the single largest monthly fall in portfolio value to date of around $236 000.
This represents a fall of 13 per cent across the month, and an overall reduction of more the 16 per cent since the portfolio peak of January.
The monthly fall is over three times more severe than any other fall experienced to date on the journey. Sharpest losses have occurred in Australian equities, however, international shares and bonds have also fallen.
A substantial fall in the Australia dollar has provided some buffer to international equity losses – limiting these to around 8 per cent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 23 per cent. In short, in the period of acute market adjustment – as often occurs – the benefits of diversification have been temporarily muted.
The falls follow a large increase in the portfolio value last month, and have occurred amidst increasing global impacts and fears from the spread of the Corona virus. The losses are mainly in Australian and global equities and have been concentrated in the last two weeks.